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Lagunas Puls, S. ., & Boggio Vázquez, J. . (2021). Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis. Cultura Y Droga, 26(31), 46–70. https://doi.org/10.17151/culdr.2021.26.31.3
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Autores/as
Sergio Lagunas Puls
Perfil Google Scholar
Juan Boggio Vázquez
Resumen
Objetivo: representar la prevalencia al consumo del cannabis por gramo en hierba y establecer escenarios mediante parábolas. Metodología: La propuesta utiliza datos contenidos en el “Informe Mundial de Drogas 2018: crisis de opioides, abuso de medicamentos y niveles récord de opio y cocaína” del mes de junio del 2018. La información demuestra grandes variaciones, en un mercado con prevalente ilegalidad, que limita emplear modelos convencionales, pero establece oportunidad para proponer alternativas como las parábolas. Resultados: estos demuestran que es posible establecer escenarios con mayor y menor volatilidad mediante parábolas. Conclusiones: los escenarios para 2026 con base en la población entre 15 y 64 años indican que en África el porcentaje de prevalencia al consumo estaría entre 5,67% y 12,99%, en América la prevalencia se ubicaría entre 8,06% y 9,63%, en Asia estaría entre 1,66% y 2,77%, Europa 5,8% y 6,03% y Oceanía entre 8,57% y 14,59%.
Palabras clave:
Citas
Amlung, M., Reed, D. D., Morris, V., Aston, E. R., Metrik, J., and MacKillop, J. (2019). Price elasticity of illegal versus legal cannabis: a behavioral
economic substitutability analysis. Addiction, 114(1), 112-118. Recuperado de https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/add.14437
Ammerman, S., Ryan, S., and Adelman, W. P. (2015). The impact of marijuana policies on youth: clinical, research, and legal update. Pediatrics, 135(3),
769-785. Recuperado de https://weedmyths.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ammerman_2015_tech-report-cb-and-youth.pdf
Becker, G., Murphy, K., and Grossman, M. (2006). The Market for Illegal Goods: the Case of Drugs. Journal of Political Economy, 114, 38-60. Recuperado de
http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?pid=S0124-59962006000200002&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en
Blatz, M., and Friesen, A. (2018). WHAT Canadian communities can learn from Denver, Colorado´s cannabis controls. Placemaking & Prosperity. Case in point
2018 Pot, , 1-7. Recuperado de http://umanitoba.ca/faculties/architecture/media/CP_cip2018_Blatz.pdf
Bone, M., Potter, G., and Klein, A. (2018). Introduction: cultivation, medication, activism and cannabis policy. Drugs and Alcohol Today, 18(2), 73-79. Recuperado
de https://lra.le.ac.uk/bitstream/2381/42583/2/PDF_Proof.PDF%20introduction.PDF
Brilhante, M. F., Gomes, M. I., and Pestana, D. (2012). Extensions of Verhulst Model in population dynamics and extremes. Chaotic Modelling Simulation, 2(4),
575-591. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Maria_Gomes17/publication/286900832_Extensions_of_Verhulst_Model_in_Population_Dynamics_and_Extremes/links/566ef8cd08ae52dd6c1270d9.pdf
Burko, L. and Price, R. (2005). Ballistic trajectory: Parabola, ellipse, or what? American Journal of Physics, 73(6), 516-520. Recuperado de https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0310049.pdf
Butsic, V., Carah, J. K., Baumann, M., Stephens, C., and Brenner, J. C. (2018). The emergence of cannabis agriculture frontiers as environmental threats.
Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 1-13. Recuperado de https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaeade/pdf
Cerdá, M., and Kilmer, B. (2017). Uruguay’s middle-ground approach to cannabis legalization. International Journal of Drug Policy, 42, 118-120. Recuperado de
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5505872/
Claessens, S. (1990). The debt laffer curve: Some estimates. World Development, 18 (12), 1671-1677. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Stijn_Claessens/publication/222167565_The_Debt_Laffer_Curve_some_estimates/links/5a001828458515d0706e7141/The-Debt-Laffer-Curve-some-estimates.pdf
Decorte, T., Pardal, M., Queirolo, R., Boidi, M. F., Avilés, C. S., and Franquero, Ò. P. (2017). Regulating Cannabis Social Clubs: A comparative analysis of legal
and self-regulatory practices in Spain, Belgium and Uruguay. International Journal of Drug Policy, 43, 44-56. Recuperado de https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8509050/file/8509051
Everett, Y. (2018). A Challenge to Socio-Ecological Resilience: Community Based Resource Management Organizations’ Perceptions and Responses to Cannabis Cultivation in Northern California. Journal of Social Relations, 89-115. Recuperado de https://digitalcommons.humboldt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1079&context=hjsr
Goodman, S., Leos-Toro, C., and Hammond, D. (2018). Methods to assess cannabis consumption in population surveys: Results of cognitive interviewing. Qualitative
health research, 1049732318820523. Recuperado de http://davidhammond. ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Goodman-et-al.-2019-Methods-to-AssessCannabis-Consumption-in-Population-Surveys.pdf
Kaplan, J. D., and Eschker, E. (2018). Estimating the Costs and Benefits from Legalization and Regulation of Adult-Use and Medical Manufactured Cannabis Products in California. EE: Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting. Recuperado de https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/273984/files/Abstracts_18_05_23_19_23_24_51__99_20_65_248_0.pdf
Kilmer, B. (2017). Recreational cannabis—minimizing the health risks from legalization. New England Journal of Medicine, 376(8), 705-707. Recuperado de https://www.chla.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Kilmer%202017-Recreational%20cannabis%20NEJM.pdf
Kirsch, J. (2018). Taxation and Welfare in the Cannabis Industry: Evidence from Colorado Edibles 2014-2016. Boulder, Colorado: University of Colorado
Boulder. Recuperado de https://www.colorado.edu/economics/sites/default/files/attached-files/18-02_-_kirsch.pdf
Laffer, A. B. (2004). The Laffer curve: Past, present, and future. Backgrounder, 1765, 1-16. Recuperado de http://www.nmhd28gop.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/bg1765.pdf
Leung, J., Chiu, C. Y., Stjepanović, D., and Hall, W. (2018). Has the legalisation of medical and recreational cannabis use in the USA affected the prevalence
of cannabis use and cannabis use disorders? Current Addiction Reports, 5(4), 403-417. Recuperado de https://ndarc.med.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/Ms%20Vivian%20Chiu%20-%20poster.pdf
Los, C. A. (2000). Visualization of chaos for finance majors. Australia: School of Economics, University of Adelaide. Recuperado de https://econwpa.ub.unimuenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0409/0409035.pdf
Mahamad, S., and Hammond, D. (2019). Retail price and availability of illicit cannabis in Canada. Addictive behaviors, 90, 402-408. Recuperado de
http://davidhammond.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-Illicit-CannabisPrices-in-Canada-Addic-Beh-Mahamad-Hammond-2.pdf
Nakielski, J. (2014). Geometry of shoot apical dome and distribution of growth rates. Acta Societatis Botanicorum Poloniae, 389-402. Recuperado de
https://pbsociety.org.pl/journals/index.php/asbp/article/view/asbp.1982.036/2737
Neaigus, A., Gyarmathy, V., Miller, M., Frajzyngier, V., Friedman, S., and Des Jarlais, D. (2006). Transitions to injecting drug use among noninjecting heroin
users: social network influence and individual susceptibility. JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 41(4), 493-503. Recuperado de
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7129573_Transitions_to_injecting_drug_use_among_noninjecting_heroin_users_-_Social_network_influence_and_individual_susceptibility
Newman, J., and Lay, T. (2018). Medical Cannabis Bike Tour funds glioblastoma clinical trial. Health Europa Quarterly, (5). Recuperado de http://sro.sussex.
ac.uk/id/eprint/75043/1/Medical%20Cannabis%20Bike%20Tour%20funds%20glioblastoma%20clinical%20trial.pdf
Rehm, J., and Fischer, B. (2015). Cannabis legalization with strict regulation, the overall superior policy option for public health. Clinical Pharmacology
& Therapeutics, 97(6), 541-544. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jurgen_Rehm/publication/272186219_Cannabis_Legalization_With_Strict_Regulation_the_Overall_Superior_Policy_Option_for_Public_
Health/links/5c2cb542a6fdccfc70780459/Cannabis-Legalization-With-StrictRegulation-the-Overal
Rhodes, W., Johnston, P., Han, S., McMullen, Q., and Hozik, L. (2000). Illicit drugs: Price elasticity of demand and supply. USA: Abt Associates.
Roldán, A. A., Gamella, J. F. y Toro, I. P. (2018). La legalización del cannabis: un experimento americano de consecuencias globales. Revista Española de
Drogodependencias, 22-38. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329838632_La_legalizacion_del_cannabis_un_experimento_americano_de_consecuencias_globales_The_legalization_of_cannabis_An_
American_experiment_with_global_consequences
Secretaría de Salud. (2018). Encuesta nacional de consumo de drogas, alcohol y tabaco 2016 - 2017. México: Secretaría de Salud. Recuperado de http://www.cij.
gob.mx/Mariguana2016T/pdf/CONSUMO_DE_DROGAS%20ENCODAT%202016.pdf
Spapens, T. (2012). The question of regulating illegal markets: The gambling and cannabis markets in the Netherlands. GSTF. Journal of Law and Social Sciences, 30-37. Recuperado de http://search.proquest.com/openview/a37aa0186f2a0a779b3628ed8c59bb35/1.pdf?pqorigsite=gscholar&cbl=1036391
Tokatlian, J. G. y Briscoe, I. (2010). Drogas ilícitas y nuevo paradigma: hacia un debate posprohibicionista. En J. Tokatlian, Drogas y Prohibición. Una vieja
guerra un nuevo debate (pp 387-407). Argentina: Zorzal.
UNODC. (26 de 06 de 2018a). Prices and purity of illicit drugs. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/maps-and-graphs.html
UNODC. (01 de 06 de 2018b). Executive summary. World Drug Report. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/exsum.html
UNODC. (26 de 06 de 2018c). Prevalence of drug use in the youth population: 15-16. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/maps-and-graphs.html
UNODC. (26 de 06 de 2018d). Prevalence of drug use in the general population - regional and global estimates. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/maps-and-graphs.html
UNODC. (26 de 06 de 2018e). 1.1. Prevalence of drug use in the general population - regional and global estimates. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/maps-and-graphs.html
UNODC. (07 de 04 de 2019). Statistics and Data. Recuperado de https://dataunodc.un.org/drugs
Wadsworth, E., and Hammond, D. (2019). International differences in patterns of cannabis use among youth: Prevalence, perceptions of harm, and driving under the influence in Canada, England & United States. Addictive behaviors, 90, 171-175. Recuperado de http://davidhammond.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-Cannabis-3-Countries-Drug-Alc-Rev-Wadworth-et-al.pdf
Watson, T. M., and Erickson, P. G. (2019). Cannabis legalization in Canada: how might ‘strict’regulation impact youth? Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09687637.2018.1482258
Wolfram. (2019). MathWorld. Recuperado de http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Parabola.html
economic substitutability analysis. Addiction, 114(1), 112-118. Recuperado de https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/add.14437
Ammerman, S., Ryan, S., and Adelman, W. P. (2015). The impact of marijuana policies on youth: clinical, research, and legal update. Pediatrics, 135(3),
769-785. Recuperado de https://weedmyths.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Ammerman_2015_tech-report-cb-and-youth.pdf
Becker, G., Murphy, K., and Grossman, M. (2006). The Market for Illegal Goods: the Case of Drugs. Journal of Political Economy, 114, 38-60. Recuperado de
http://www.scielo.org.co/scielo.php?pid=S0124-59962006000200002&script=sci_arttext&tlng=en
Blatz, M., and Friesen, A. (2018). WHAT Canadian communities can learn from Denver, Colorado´s cannabis controls. Placemaking & Prosperity. Case in point
2018 Pot, , 1-7. Recuperado de http://umanitoba.ca/faculties/architecture/media/CP_cip2018_Blatz.pdf
Bone, M., Potter, G., and Klein, A. (2018). Introduction: cultivation, medication, activism and cannabis policy. Drugs and Alcohol Today, 18(2), 73-79. Recuperado
de https://lra.le.ac.uk/bitstream/2381/42583/2/PDF_Proof.PDF%20introduction.PDF
Brilhante, M. F., Gomes, M. I., and Pestana, D. (2012). Extensions of Verhulst Model in population dynamics and extremes. Chaotic Modelling Simulation, 2(4),
575-591. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Maria_Gomes17/publication/286900832_Extensions_of_Verhulst_Model_in_Population_Dynamics_and_Extremes/links/566ef8cd08ae52dd6c1270d9.pdf
Burko, L. and Price, R. (2005). Ballistic trajectory: Parabola, ellipse, or what? American Journal of Physics, 73(6), 516-520. Recuperado de https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0310049.pdf
Butsic, V., Carah, J. K., Baumann, M., Stephens, C., and Brenner, J. C. (2018). The emergence of cannabis agriculture frontiers as environmental threats.
Environmental Research Letters, 13(12), 1-13. Recuperado de https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaeade/pdf
Cerdá, M., and Kilmer, B. (2017). Uruguay’s middle-ground approach to cannabis legalization. International Journal of Drug Policy, 42, 118-120. Recuperado de
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5505872/
Claessens, S. (1990). The debt laffer curve: Some estimates. World Development, 18 (12), 1671-1677. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Stijn_Claessens/publication/222167565_The_Debt_Laffer_Curve_some_estimates/links/5a001828458515d0706e7141/The-Debt-Laffer-Curve-some-estimates.pdf
Decorte, T., Pardal, M., Queirolo, R., Boidi, M. F., Avilés, C. S., and Franquero, Ò. P. (2017). Regulating Cannabis Social Clubs: A comparative analysis of legal
and self-regulatory practices in Spain, Belgium and Uruguay. International Journal of Drug Policy, 43, 44-56. Recuperado de https://biblio.ugent.be/publication/8509050/file/8509051
Everett, Y. (2018). A Challenge to Socio-Ecological Resilience: Community Based Resource Management Organizations’ Perceptions and Responses to Cannabis Cultivation in Northern California. Journal of Social Relations, 89-115. Recuperado de https://digitalcommons.humboldt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1079&context=hjsr
Goodman, S., Leos-Toro, C., and Hammond, D. (2018). Methods to assess cannabis consumption in population surveys: Results of cognitive interviewing. Qualitative
health research, 1049732318820523. Recuperado de http://davidhammond. ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Goodman-et-al.-2019-Methods-to-AssessCannabis-Consumption-in-Population-Surveys.pdf
Kaplan, J. D., and Eschker, E. (2018). Estimating the Costs and Benefits from Legalization and Regulation of Adult-Use and Medical Manufactured Cannabis Products in California. EE: Agricultural & Applied Economics Association Annual Meeting. Recuperado de https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/273984/files/Abstracts_18_05_23_19_23_24_51__99_20_65_248_0.pdf
Kilmer, B. (2017). Recreational cannabis—minimizing the health risks from legalization. New England Journal of Medicine, 376(8), 705-707. Recuperado de https://www.chla.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/Kilmer%202017-Recreational%20cannabis%20NEJM.pdf
Kirsch, J. (2018). Taxation and Welfare in the Cannabis Industry: Evidence from Colorado Edibles 2014-2016. Boulder, Colorado: University of Colorado
Boulder. Recuperado de https://www.colorado.edu/economics/sites/default/files/attached-files/18-02_-_kirsch.pdf
Laffer, A. B. (2004). The Laffer curve: Past, present, and future. Backgrounder, 1765, 1-16. Recuperado de http://www.nmhd28gop.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/bg1765.pdf
Leung, J., Chiu, C. Y., Stjepanović, D., and Hall, W. (2018). Has the legalisation of medical and recreational cannabis use in the USA affected the prevalence
of cannabis use and cannabis use disorders? Current Addiction Reports, 5(4), 403-417. Recuperado de https://ndarc.med.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/Ms%20Vivian%20Chiu%20-%20poster.pdf
Los, C. A. (2000). Visualization of chaos for finance majors. Australia: School of Economics, University of Adelaide. Recuperado de https://econwpa.ub.unimuenchen.de/econ-wp/fin/papers/0409/0409035.pdf
Mahamad, S., and Hammond, D. (2019). Retail price and availability of illicit cannabis in Canada. Addictive behaviors, 90, 402-408. Recuperado de
http://davidhammond.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-Illicit-CannabisPrices-in-Canada-Addic-Beh-Mahamad-Hammond-2.pdf
Nakielski, J. (2014). Geometry of shoot apical dome and distribution of growth rates. Acta Societatis Botanicorum Poloniae, 389-402. Recuperado de
https://pbsociety.org.pl/journals/index.php/asbp/article/view/asbp.1982.036/2737
Neaigus, A., Gyarmathy, V., Miller, M., Frajzyngier, V., Friedman, S., and Des Jarlais, D. (2006). Transitions to injecting drug use among noninjecting heroin
users: social network influence and individual susceptibility. JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes, 41(4), 493-503. Recuperado de
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/7129573_Transitions_to_injecting_drug_use_among_noninjecting_heroin_users_-_Social_network_influence_and_individual_susceptibility
Newman, J., and Lay, T. (2018). Medical Cannabis Bike Tour funds glioblastoma clinical trial. Health Europa Quarterly, (5). Recuperado de http://sro.sussex.
ac.uk/id/eprint/75043/1/Medical%20Cannabis%20Bike%20Tour%20funds%20glioblastoma%20clinical%20trial.pdf
Rehm, J., and Fischer, B. (2015). Cannabis legalization with strict regulation, the overall superior policy option for public health. Clinical Pharmacology
& Therapeutics, 97(6), 541-544. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jurgen_Rehm/publication/272186219_Cannabis_Legalization_With_Strict_Regulation_the_Overall_Superior_Policy_Option_for_Public_
Health/links/5c2cb542a6fdccfc70780459/Cannabis-Legalization-With-StrictRegulation-the-Overal
Rhodes, W., Johnston, P., Han, S., McMullen, Q., and Hozik, L. (2000). Illicit drugs: Price elasticity of demand and supply. USA: Abt Associates.
Roldán, A. A., Gamella, J. F. y Toro, I. P. (2018). La legalización del cannabis: un experimento americano de consecuencias globales. Revista Española de
Drogodependencias, 22-38. Recuperado de https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329838632_La_legalizacion_del_cannabis_un_experimento_americano_de_consecuencias_globales_The_legalization_of_cannabis_An_
American_experiment_with_global_consequences
Secretaría de Salud. (2018). Encuesta nacional de consumo de drogas, alcohol y tabaco 2016 - 2017. México: Secretaría de Salud. Recuperado de http://www.cij.
gob.mx/Mariguana2016T/pdf/CONSUMO_DE_DROGAS%20ENCODAT%202016.pdf
Spapens, T. (2012). The question of regulating illegal markets: The gambling and cannabis markets in the Netherlands. GSTF. Journal of Law and Social Sciences, 30-37. Recuperado de http://search.proquest.com/openview/a37aa0186f2a0a779b3628ed8c59bb35/1.pdf?pqorigsite=gscholar&cbl=1036391
Tokatlian, J. G. y Briscoe, I. (2010). Drogas ilícitas y nuevo paradigma: hacia un debate posprohibicionista. En J. Tokatlian, Drogas y Prohibición. Una vieja
guerra un nuevo debate (pp 387-407). Argentina: Zorzal.
UNODC. (26 de 06 de 2018a). Prices and purity of illicit drugs. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/maps-and-graphs.html
UNODC. (01 de 06 de 2018b). Executive summary. World Drug Report. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/exsum.html
UNODC. (26 de 06 de 2018c). Prevalence of drug use in the youth population: 15-16. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/maps-and-graphs.html
UNODC. (26 de 06 de 2018d). Prevalence of drug use in the general population - regional and global estimates. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/maps-and-graphs.html
UNODC. (26 de 06 de 2018e). 1.1. Prevalence of drug use in the general population - regional and global estimates. Recuperado de https://www.unodc.org/wdr2018/en/maps-and-graphs.html
UNODC. (07 de 04 de 2019). Statistics and Data. Recuperado de https://dataunodc.un.org/drugs
Wadsworth, E., and Hammond, D. (2019). International differences in patterns of cannabis use among youth: Prevalence, perceptions of harm, and driving under the influence in Canada, England & United States. Addictive behaviors, 90, 171-175. Recuperado de http://davidhammond.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/2018-Cannabis-3-Countries-Drug-Alc-Rev-Wadworth-et-al.pdf
Watson, T. M., and Erickson, P. G. (2019). Cannabis legalization in Canada: how might ‘strict’regulation impact youth? Drugs: Education, Prevention and Policy. doi: https://doi.org/10.1080/09687637.2018.1482258
Wolfram. (2019). MathWorld. Recuperado de http://mathworld.wolfram.com/Parabola.html
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