Análisis parabólico de la prevalencia al consumo de cannabis

Resumen

Objetivo: representar la prevalencia al consumo del cannabis por gramo en hierba y establecer escenarios mediante parábolas. Metodología: La propuesta utiliza datos contenidos en el “Informe Mundial de Drogas 2018: crisis de opioides, abuso de medicamentos y niveles récord de opio y cocaína” del mes de junio del 2018. La información demuestra grandes variaciones, en un mercado con prevalente ilegalidad, que limita emplear modelos convencionales, pero establece oportunidad para proponer alternativas como las parábolas. Resultados: estos demuestran que es posible establecer escenarios con mayor y menor volatilidad mediante parábolas. Conclusiones: los escenarios para 2026 con base en la población entre 15 y 64  años indican que en África el porcentaje de prevalencia al consumo estaría entre 5,67% y 12,99%, en América la prevalencia se ubicaría entre 8,06% y 9,63%, en Asia estaría entre 1,66% y 2,77%, Europa 5,8% y 6,03% y Oceanía entre 8,57% y 14,59%.

Palabras clave:

cannabis

prevalencia a consumo

parábolas

cannabis

consumption prevalence

parabolas

Citas

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