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Ladino-Martínez, L. M., Guerrero, S. C., & Ortiz-Moreno, M. L. (2024). Mathematical model of the presence of Zocay monkey’s (Plecturocebus ornatus) in an agriculture and cattle raising landscapes. Boletín Científico. Centro De Museos, 28(2), 103–127. https://doi.org/10.17151/bccm.2024.28.2.6
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Authors
Lilia Mercedes Ladino-Martínez
Universidad de los Llanos
Sara Cristina Guerrero
Universidad de los LlanosMartha Lucía Ortiz-Moreno
Universidad de los LlanosAbstract
The Zocay monkey (Plecturocebus ornatus) is a platyrrhine primate endemic to the Colombian departments of Meta and Cundinamarca. It is considered vulnerable to extinction due to habitat loss and its specific ecological requirements. In the realm of primate conservation, mathematical modeling has not been extensively explored to create scenarios that allow for prioritizing efforts, despite its use in other biological groups as a complementary tool in wildlife management strategies. The objective of this work was to construct a mathematical model of the dynamics of the presence of P. ornatus in forest fragments within an agricultural landscape, with the aim of contributing to its conservation and that of its habitat. To this end, the forest cover within the municipality of San Martín (Meta) was examined through on-screen digitization at a scale of 1:25,000 in ArcGIS 10.8, employing Landsat satellite images captured between 2013 and 2019. Concurrently, the landscape structure was analyzed using the V-LATE 2.0 extension. The presence of P. ornatus was monitored through focal observations in transects within forest fragments in an agricultural landscape influenced by short-cycle crops, African palm, and extensive cattle ranching. A mathematical metapopulation model was constructed from the data, given that the species can establish subpopulations in a fragmented landscape, its dispersal rate is low, and its dynamics could be defined by local colonization and extinction processes. This modeling was executed in Vensim PLE, operating under the following assumptions: 1) An augmentation in landscape connectivity is directly correlated with an increased dispersal rate of primates; and 2) An enhancement in both the area and quality of forest fragments exerts a favorable influence on primate population presence within a fragmented landscape. The model was then used to construct scenarios with varying degrees of forest cover area loss. These scenarios included a base scenario, representing the continuation of current trends (i.e., "business as usual"), a high deforestation scenario, an intermediate scenario (involving local conservation with occasional increases in forest cover area), and a pro-conservation scenario (where the quantity, quality, and connectivity of habitat for the species is increased). The model predictions indicate that P. ornatus exhibits a low probability of persistence in the base, intermediate, and high deforestation scenarios, attributable to the impact of habitat loss. Consequently, it is deduced that P. ornatus exhibits a propensity for extinction from the agricultural landscape in the event of the perpetuation of the conversion of forest areas into agricultural zones. It is imperative to prioritize the enhancement of connectivity and the augmentation of available habitat to ensure the survival of P. ornatus in the anthropized environment.
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